File under things that make you go hmmm.

 Men could soon be able to use a ‘male Pill’ that has no side effects, scientists have revealed.

The chemical implant acts as a contraceptive but does not change the balance of a man’s sex hormones.

Scientists have discovered a substance that can temporarily block the development of sperm without altering testosterone levels and without causing unwanted side effects.

CSG

This is a post I’ve been wanting to write for a while.  Now I don’t have to thanks to No Room for Contraception.

Oral contraceptives are the leading choice of contraception for women under 35, meaning that millions of women are increasing their risk of developing breast cancer. A 2003 study of young breast cancer patients revealed that oral contraception was a significant factor in breast cancer patients aged 20-35 [8] The study also revealed that the highest risk for OC use was five years prior to diagnosis.[9]

 CSG

1.  If the guidelines are followed, which I don’t know how they can not follow, a ton of loans in the pipeline are going to be rejected. Furthermore, the recasters are going to have hell of a time refinancing, while the existing loans are all going to be non-conforming to these guidelines.

2.  The big question is applicability to the non regulated lenders such as NEW, LEND and NFI. Could they actually benefit because all the regulated lenders such as CFC, WM, WFC would all be forced out of the market. I find it hard to believe that the powerful banking lobbyist would allow that to happen so it would be only short term.

 3.  I think it has teeth because while they are just guidelines, the banks are going to have to explain to the examiners why they choose to ignore the guidelines if they continue to lend using old underwriting standards. They guidelines are pretty clear.

Further down in the article:

On a national basis 46% of loans in 2006 were adjustable and of those 63% were non-traditional. In other words 29% of all loans nationally were either interest only or pay option arms. That is likely to be a huge problem as interest rates reset. The chart above shows the number of neg-am loans. It is close to a staggering 27% of all loans this year in California. If the only way people could “afford” those homes was the low teaser rate, then look for a huge drop in purchases as the lending guidelines are followed.Summary of Effects

• Stated income loans all but vanish
• Pay option arms all but vanish
• Pool of eligible buyers shrinks
• Inventories will rise
• Increased downward pressure on prices
• California, Nevada, Florida hardest hit
• Foreclosures will continue to rise

One of the arguments against there being a housing bubble is that homeowners will re-finance when their payment spikes from one ARM product to another.  These guidelines make that more difficult especially if your home has decreased in value and you have no equity cushion.  If the appraiser comes out to decide what your home is worth and it is worth less than what you owe or has not increased enough in value to give you an equity cushion, either you won’t qualify for that new loan or you have to bring money to the table. 

Calculated Risk points to a couple of articles that predict some pretty awful stuff (posts on October 23.)

Here is Reuters: Fannie, Freddie chiefs see danger in new mortgages Popular new mortgage products that have helped fuel the U.S. housing boom will soon lead to more delinquencies and foreclosures as rates are reset, the chiefs of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Monday. Next year, a trillion dollars worth of mortgages will have their rates reset, said Dan Mudd, chief executive officer of Fannie Mae. That’s a significant share of $9 trillion in mortgages outstanding, he said.“Those resets are going to have some very interesting and difficult-to-predict impacts on consumers,” Mudd said, noting that many consumers will have trouble keeping up with payments. 

And in another article: 

Up to 4% of America’s mortgaged homeowners might lose their homes to foreclosure in coming months, one of the nation’s largest lenders predicted Monday, as those homeowners find themselves trapped by heavy debt and the housing slump. ………………………………………….. 

Four percent, of the approximately edit: 50 million mortgaged homes is 2.0 million potentially lost to foreclosure in the “coming months” (thanks to Ellen1910 and
Tanta for the correction). 

The emphasis above is mine.  On the bubble blogs here, here, here, and here it is often argued that the reality on the ground is not reported in the MSM until 3 or more months after it is actually happening.  I’ve followed these blogs for close to a year now and that has proven to be true.  What’s being reported on these blogs actually hits the MSM much later.  It’s important to read through the comments on these blogs.  The comments often flesh out what is in the post and most of the posters are financial people who know what they are talking about. 

If what is being predicted above is true then this is going to be much worse than I can even fathom.  My Dad talks about the last bust in the late 80s and early 90s and how there were pages and pages of foreclosure auctions listed in the newspaper.  To see if the number is rising where I live I signed up for a free foreclosure alert from realtytrac.  I’ve been getting one or two emails a week from them with new foreclosures.  It’s not a huge amount but what happens when all of those exotic mortgages adjust next year?    

As my Grandmother would say, Holy Smokes! 

Two things really.

First, Pro-life and strict construction judges.  We got two recently:
 Chief Justice John G. Roberts

and

 Justice Samuel Alito.

They are both pro-life and are strict construction judges. 

I want one more.  So I know how I am going to vote.

Also there’s the little problem of the war on terror.  I am reminded of how immediately after 9/11 I expressed to a friend how I was worried that the U.S. had lost it’s will to fight.  She said that this was not so.

I think we are losing our will to fight and I believe it will be the death of the U.S.  Terrorism has been going on for years.

On WMAL today the news reports were that former Security Moms would decide the election.  That may be, but what SM’s should remember is that we got to 9/11 by ignoring the problem for 20+ years.  That their grandchildren might be facing the problems of Europe, specifically the problems of France and the U.K.

We ignore this problem at our own peril.  Either by retreating and dealing with it another decade or two later or not dealing with it at all and becoming France and the U.K. 

The biggest heartburn I have over this election generally is that people, parties and the MSM don’t see this threat for what it is at it’s core:  a threat to the future of the U.S.

Thomas Sowell has a great editorial on NRO today that discusses the upcoming election.  In part:

But elections are not about which politicians get to keep their jobs, though the media cover the news as if the political horse race is the issue. Elections are about the fate of 300 million Americans and the future of this nation.

That fate hangs grimly in the balance as two irresponsible regimes in North Korea and Iran seek to gain nuclear weapons. Neither leader of these regimes can be deterred by threats of nuclear retaliation, as the Soviet Union was deterred.

Both are like Hitler, who was willing to see his own people decimated and his own country reduced to rubble rather than quit when it was obvious to all that he could not win. If you can imagine Hitler with a few nuclear weapons to use to vent his all-consuming hatreds in a lost cause, you can see what a nuclear North Korea or a nuclear Iran would mean for America and the world.

It is obscene that our media should be obsessed with some jerk in Congress who wrote dirty e-mails to congressional pages — and was forced out of Congress for it — when this nation faces dangers of this magnitude.

It would be worse than obscene for some voters to cut off their nose to spite their face by either staying home on election day or actually voting a blank check from America for a party with a decades-long history of irresponsibility on national defense.

His description of the situation we face is absolutely perfect.

That’s my framework for the vote.
 

Newsbusters does a good job of exposing the people who are behind this.  The sponsors are basically left leaning activists.  That’s fine enough except that they claim to be non-partisan.  Their public service ads border on disgusting employing double-entendre such as, “Remember your first time?” in an attempt to connect with the MTV generation.  They claim that 20 million single women did not vote in 2004.  This doesn’t surprise me.

It makes me wonder, why don’t single women register to vote?  The Census Bureau conducted a study on Voting and Registration in the 2004 Election.  The part that stood out to me was the section examining why people don’t register to vote.  Here are the main reasons for not voting:

REASONS FOR NOT REGISTERING Of the 32 million people whoreported that they were not registered to vote in 2004, 15 million(47 percent) reported that they were not interested in the electionor were not involved in politics (Table E).19 Another 6 million, or17 percent, reported that they did not meet the registration deadlines.Other reasons for not being registered included not being eligibleto vote (7 percent), permanent illness or disability (6 percent), andnot knowing where or how to register (5 percent). Four percent ofthe nonregistered population indicated their vote would notmake a difference and 4 percent reported they did not meet residency requirements

So you have 51% of people who didn’t register that are not interested or don’t believe their vote will count.  That’s huge especially the 47% who don’t care.  It’s important to note that this stat is not only women; it’s a sample of all non-registered voters.

So, WVWV it trying to reach 20 million unregistered women by appealing to what does interest them, in their opinion, sex.  If approximately half aren’t interested, if we apply the Census bureau stat, then you bring their number down to 10 million.  WVWV believe that the way to get out the vote and capture that 10 mil is to appeal to women’s hormones.  What it doesn’t take into account are what are important differing attitudes on various subjects of the ‘don’t care’ crowd.  If WVWV was to motivate all of the 10 mil then what?  You’d have the same breakdown of a variety of positions on a variety of political issues that you have amongst registered active voters.

Another similar project was the Vote or Die, Diddy campaign in the 2004 election.  That wasn’t just aimed at women; it was aimed at the MTV youth.  So what happened to Vote or Die?  It seems to be disbanded with promises of ‘re-thinking’ the business model of 2004.  However Vote or Die did bring more young voters to the polls according to the Washington Post.  For that to matter however, the WP would have to prove that the younger voters voted as a block and affected the election.  I don’t find any evidence of that. 

Given the ‘I don’t care’ attitude amongst non-registered voters, I don’t believe the WVWV will have an impact on the number of single women voters, and even if they do get out the vote, there is no historical example of a identified non-voting, then registering bloc, voting as a bloc.

This really is a flaw amongst left leaning get out the vote efforts.  They are working on the models of the 1960s that motivated them to vote.  Unfortunately for them, the unmarried voters, whether they are male or female, just don’t seem to care.  It seems to me that their strategy is similar to trying to catch flies.  The same dynamic that motivated them to vote doesn’t exist anymore because the voters that don’t care about voting are a negative to their base:  their base is shrinking. 

The repubs have a better get out the vote machine according to Time.

So, the Republicans do a better job of identifying issues and groups that are voting or who register and are voting for the first time.

I don’t think that the single woman who vote motivated by hormones will outweigh the newly registered issue or values voters amongst them.

As always CSGs should do their own investigating regarding their own vote.  I don’t believe that WVWV takes into account the big picture in terms of how singles will vote once they get to the polls.

It should be interesting. 

The bigger question for this CSG is what happens after the election?

My wild 2008 presidential election prediction is that HRC will turn pro-life via some alter call or whatever, before her run for the President.

God bless.

CSG 

She’s also a CSG I admire. 

One of the many things that I relate to Laura with is her love of her dog Troy.  I am also a CSG with dog and love my own dog Dante to distraction.

Laura had to put Troy down this week. 

I can’t even begin to describe her agony this week because I’ll get stupidly teary again. 

My dog Dante is sick with a neurological problem (see above)  and he will probably go the same way as Troy, just younger. 

He’s doing well currently.

For Laura and Troy I can only describe a conversation with my SD about dogs and Heaven.  He thought I was becoming too attached to Dante.  He said, “If Dante is not in Heaven would you want to go there?”

I said, “I would still want to go to Heaven, but, if God asked me, I would tell him that my dog would be the icing on the cake.”

My SD, a solid ETWN priest, laughed at me.

I’m no theologian, but the new world, when we are resurrected will be this world perfected from what I can tell.  I think Dante has a better chance of that minus the Grace of God.  He would be part of eternal happiness for me.  I can’t really describe what the perfected human thinks of happiness.  I know that I’m a bad sin away from never knowing it. 

The only thing I can say about dogs is that they never stop loving which is the closest thing outside of the love of my own family that I can think of when I think of God.  So I’m betting they are waiting for us, if we get there.

As I mentioned before in my CSG and pets post, my dog fills the gap.  I’m most grateful to God for him

To Laura and Troy, my prayers are with you.

CSG

In my own experience conservative elements sort of co-exist.  They don’t necessarily contradict one and other unless they are Catholic.  The various pro-life orgs battle each other for their piece of the pie.  Thinking about Oprah, Bill O and being a CSG I wonder:  could there be a conservative or Catholic Oprah?

I believe there could be.  It would require conservatives to get together who have their individual sucessful enterprises.  I’m talking about Peggy Noonan, Michelle Malkin, Laura Ingraham and other organizations to put forth a joint venture that would be the conservative answer to Oprah.  Conservative media has its fair hearing but a Catholic or conservative Oprah would be an intelligent antidote to Oprah and the women’s magazines of today.

Do I  believe it would be an overnight success?  No.  But I don’t think it would be a 5 year build.  Part of the problem with Equal Time with Bay Buchanan and Dee Dee Myers is that they just argued.  I’m talking about a forum that would be Oprah like, in that it appealed to women on Oprah’s level in every way.  Politics, books, relationships, food, savings or whatever area that would give support to conservative/Catholic daily life.,

Like FoxNews women are looking to be able to tune in and talk to other women that have a similar belief or political conviction.  I believe there are a lot more conservative Christian women out there than polls tell.

Part of the reason for this blog was to create such a thing.  If those more erudite and successful women can do so.  Great!  I’ve doubted my ability to give anything other than my own opinion here so I hope conservative women who are established will take up that challenge.  I think it will be very profitable for whoever can pull it off.

Come on conservatives/Christian/Catholics:  go do this.  Pitch the show to Fox, start that blog or website.  It will do a world of good.

CSG

What I’d like eventually is for it to be less about what I want to write about and my ability to keep up the pace and more about CSGs.  So CSGs what would you like to see addressed?  I’m of the mind that there would be useful information about what affects your life spiritually, financially, emotionally, politically and whatever else you’d like to see addressed to a CSG.

My initial post of writing for six months (and I’ve got a long way to go on that) to see if I can keep up the pace has more to do with my ability to post what would be useful to a CSG than in posting my opinions.

So send links to CSGs doing good.  Write to catholicsinglegirl@yahoo.com.  I’ll post the story and links to donations for their work.  I’ll check it out to see if the cause is in accord with the Magesterium. 

Also, tell me what you would like to hear about as a CSG.  I can’t promise I’ll know anything about it, but maybe I can find someone to respond who does.

The idea behind this blog is that CSGs don’t get addressed within the Church very much.  Tell me what would be helpful to you.

CSG

Listening to this horribly recorded podcast was like a flashback to the days when I actually read women’s magazines including Ms. 

The thread running through the interview was:  WE ARE ALL VICTIMS AND HAVE BEEN PSYCHOLOGICALLY TORTURED!  MEN NEED TO BE HUMANIZED!!  WOMEN WHO DON’T BELIEVE WHAT WE BELIEVE HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THEIR MOTHERS!!  The same old rot and self-absorption.

If you listen to this you must be of the mind that everything that is wrong with this country is President Bush’s fault.  We are under assault and the world is about to end because of W and Fox News.

A paraphrased gem:

‘If you actually listen to Bin Laden he has some interesting things to say.  It’s U.S. foreign policy he hates, not democracy.’

Really?  Does Bin Laden speak out against this?

Was President Clinton of a mind to listen to Osama?

CLINTON: No, no. I authorized the CIA to get groups together to try to kill him.The CIA, which was run by George Tenet, that President Bush gave the Medal of Freedom to, he said, “He did a good job setting up all these counter-terrorism things.”The country never had a comprehensive anti-terror operation until I came there. Now, if you want to criticize me for one thing, you can criticize me for this: After the Cole, I had battle plans drawn to go into Afghanistan, overthrow the Taliban, and launch a full-scale attack search for bin Laden.But we needed basing rights in Uzbekistan, which we got after 9/11.The CIA and the FBI refused to certify that bin Laden was responsible while I was there. They refused to certify. So that meant I would’ve had to send a few hundred Special Forces in helicopters and refuel at night.Even the 9/11 Commission didn’t do that. Now, the 9/11 Commission was a political document, too. All I’m asking is, anybody who wants to say I didn’t do enough, you read Richard Clarke’s book.

WALLACE: Do you think you did enough, sir?

CLINTON: No, because I didn’t get him.

WALLACE: Right.

________________________________

So, Gloria, where’s the criticism of President Clinton?

I could hammer a book out on stone with my bare fingers about this interview, listen for yourself, but the thing I would like to point out is that Steinem seems to point to talk radio and W as the cause of all that is wrong in the world.  I would also point out that she never points a finger of criticism at her side of the aisle.

Gloria:  you did good.  I thank you for the FACT that I can be a CSG and take care of myself and have a good job.  Kudos and gratitude from a CSG. 

But the entire podcast is full of bloggers saying what you said 46 years ago and since.  We have to humanize men (essentially kill the part of their brain that notices any difference between men and women apart from their genitalia.)  We have to get rid of labels that identify men and women (no matter how hard humans may try, if a man and a woman have sex, he is not going to get pregnant.  How will eliminating labels change this?)  Conservatives have the same policies as Hitler.  Liberals have 70% support in polls on every issue but they don’t get the vote out.

The problem with this is that what Steinem doesn’t understand is an entire generation of women who came after her are questioning her type of feminism.  She questioned and made some positive changes in society.  We are now questioning in the same way.  It’s insulting that she starts out the conversation with the bloggers with a reference to her favorite cartoon which is essentially a Catholic bashing joke.  The cartoon is of a woman on one side of the confessional screen.  She says to the priest, “You first.”  It’s even more insulting that she implies that anyone who doesn’t agree with her brand of feminism is psychologically damaged by their relationship with their mother. 

We are questioning whether or not abortion is good for society.  We are questioning if trying to suppress the difference between men and women is wrong.  By dismissing that group of women you do your cause no favors. As to 70% of Americans supporting what you advocate, in particular, abortion as a human right:  let’s have a referendum in each state.  You’d lose.  See this amalgamation of polls taken earlier of this year.  Specifically see the question about partial-birth-abortion.  If the left can’t condemn that, then they’ve lost.  Notice also that the pro-life position has been gaining ground over time.The women who are questioning the feminist left don’t see how choosing to end a life for the sake of convenience is good.  Why can’t we love them both?  A pregnancy is nine months and a lifetime snuffed out for good doesn’t seem to add-up.

Excuse my rant on this podcast.  I’m sure it was intended for an appreciative audience.  But, I think she misses the point of why many women don’t see things the way she does and doesn’t address their concerns at all in my opinion  The really sad thing about the liberals and thus the democrats as the liberals/left control the party, is that they don’t realize that if they moved on abortion to protect children, the would never lose an election again.  I personally wouldn’t vote for them because I’m a social conservative, but they are just too blinded and are wedded politically to abortion.  And it’s sad for the babies that never got a chance to live.  Essentially, Steinem’s feminism and the left’s devotion to abortion has lost them the political stage.  And they can’t see that at all.

CSG

 In part:

 Triggers

I would have thought that by now Miller would have figured out what the “trigger” was to this downturn. Perhaps the answer is just too simple for many to understand. The trigger (or lack thereof really) is called exhaustion.

The short version of the process is simple: “The pool of greater fools dries up”.
The long version of the process is as follows:

The Exhaustion Process

• After years of price runups, people started buying homes not to live in but for investment purposes. In 2004 and 2005 a whopping 40% of all homes sold were for second homes or for investment purposes.
• The above happened in spite of the fact that home prices to wages relationships, and home prices to rental prices had both risen 4 standard deviations above norm.
• Credit standards steadily declined to rock bottom levels such that anyone who could fog a mirror could get a loan
• Lenders passed on risk to hedge funds, pension plans, etc who could not get enough of what eventually will become toxic waste, but at the time seemed like a good idea. Risk yield spreads collapsed as people started assuming prices of houses would never decline.
• Fannie Mae lost trillions in derivative hedging as interest rates gyrated but no one really cared.
• Homebuilders provided down payments via charities to those who could not afford to buy a house. The IRS has been looking into this practice and it may be illegal.
• Magazine covers, books, and financial wizards of all sort were touting “Buy now before prices rise further”.
• All sorts of creative financial products were unleashed on the unwary.
• As the pool of eligible and willing buyers shrank, subprime loans, pay option arms, and stated income loans soared as a percentage of all loans. Anything and everything was done to keep the bubble expanding.
• The masses embraced the trend just as it was ending.
• Panic buying reached a peak in the Summer of 2005 with people camping out overnight in Florida to buy condos for ridiculous prices hoping to flip them. No one bothered to figure out there was no one to flip them to.
• David Lereah, chief propagandist for the National Association of Realtors, published the same book twice. His book “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?”was published in February 2005 about 6 months before the peak. One year later in February 2006 (about 6 months after the peak) Lereah retitled his book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust—And How You Can Profit from It.”
• Pent up demand collapsed and home sales plunged. The pool of greater fools, reached its pinnacle, depending on location, somewhere between Summer of 2005 and Winter of 2005.
• The unwinding process has really just started.
• Given that the housing boom lasted for close to 20 years and sustained panic buying happened over a 3-5 year period, selling capitulation and inventory work off can easily take 7 years or more. We are nowhere close to selling exhaustion.
• Global wage arbitrage, outsourcing, rising bankruptcies, and rising unemployment will ensure this process will take a long time to fully unwind.
• Prices will continue to fall until bankruptcies and selling exhaustion are in.

Everyone seems to have enjoyed the bubble post of yesterday so I’ll try a post like that every now and then.  Go read those blogs though because I’m just linking to what stands out to me.

Regarding those cops, teachers and firefighters there was this little nugget over at Ben’s blog.

 “‘In some new-home neighborhoods in Florida, there are more ‘for sale’ or ‘for rent’ signs than there are drapes in the windows,’ adds Jack McCabe, a real-estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Fla.”

“Debbie Terry, director of recruitment for the Collier County school system in Naples, says the district is suffering a ‘double whammy’ from steep real-estate prices. About 25 new teachers hired this summer later rescinded their contracts because they felt home prices in Naples were too high.”

“Meanwhile, a growing number of more-experienced teachers have been selling their homes to lock in big profits made during the boom, and then moving to less-expensive places like south Georgia.” (emphasis mine)

So I guess when I move to Georgia or some other place like it I will be amongst the 100k or less crowd and we can all talk about being priced out of real estate.

Another one from Ben:

From CNN Money . “Home price increases have slowed nationwide and even reversed in many markets. Inventories are up and new home builders are cutting back. More and more sellers are having difficulty selling their properties. We’ve profiled some of these sellers and that has produced a flood of reader emails from other troubled sellers. Sellers have reacted to the quickly changing market almost with disbelief.”

“K. Gordon, Amarillo, Texas: ‘I bought a brand new house in Amarillo. Unexpectedly, 4 months later I had to move back to south Florida. 14 months and 3 agents later, the house has not sold. I’ve tapped out my credit making payments on that house as well as my current rent.”

According to most of the material I’ve read, the actual numbers in real estate lag by about three months and the ones released for the press are estimated projections.  Some of the stories coming out of these blogs are startling and suggest a far worse picture than the news of yesterday paints. 

And last, for your RE fraud news of the day (I predict you will be reading a lot more of these types of stories):

“One house was sold at about $100,000 more than its $350,000 market value. The other, next door, sold for $50,000 more than its $350,000 value. The biggest loser is the Indianapolis bank that loaned the money. And once the real-estate market bottoms out, the dominoes of loan defaults that will likely result will reveal even more mortgage fraud cases, says Lance Caldwell, one of Portland’s assistant U.S. district attorneys.”

“‘It reminds me,’ Caldwell says, ‘of the savings and loan crisis.’”

CSG